Opportunity Awaits Drivers Below the Playoff Cutline at Homestead

For a few Playoff contenders, the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs Round of 8 got off to a rough start last weekend in the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. But all four drivers currently below the Playoff cutline heading into round two of the three-race Playoff round must quickly put last weekend's shortcomings behind them.

Homestead-Miami Speedway marks an opportunity to completely flip their fortunes, from what they looked like at the conclusion of last week's race, and all four drivers have reason to believe they'll be in contention for a win in Sunday's Straight Talk Wireless 400.

Denny Hamlin, -27 points

The driver of the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry XSE was a preseason favorite for the NASCAR Cup Series championship, and those feelings only increased as Hamlin burst out of the gates with three victories through the opening 11 races of the 2024 season.

However, Hamlin hasn't won a race since Dover Motor Speedway in April, and he finds himself in a precarious place in the championship standings. But after a rough start to his NASCAR Cup Series Playoff campaign, Hamlin and crew chief Chris Gabehart have found their footing, and with it they have started to regain some of their consistency.

Hamlin comes into this weekend's race having finished inside the top 10 in four of his last five races, and he likely could have finished higher than eighth last weekend at Las Vegas had it not been for a variety of pit road miscues, some at the hands of Hamlin, and some at the hands of his pit crew.

Still, Hamlin is very skilled at the 1.5-mile Homestead-Miami Speedway. The 43-year-old has three wins at the facility, which is the most among active drivers, and he has an average finish of 10.9 through 19 career starts at the track, which is the fourth-best among active drivers.

Last season, Hamlin had another fast car at Homestead as he led 32 laps. However, something broke in his steering system, which sent him into the wall, and out of the race on Lap 237. That crash was Hamlin's first career DNF at Homestead, which tells you all you need to know... he is almost always around at the end of races at this track. Expect him to be in the mix on Sunday.

Tyler Reddick, -30 points

Much like his team owner Hamlin, Reddick is really, really good at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Reddick's ability to ride the outside wall at Homestead is possibly only overshadowed by Kyle Larson. However, the 28-year-old racer has yet to pick up a win in the NASCAR Cup Series at one of his best tracks.

In four career starts at Homestead, which have come for two different organizations (Richard Childress Racing from 2020 to 2022, and 23XI Racing in 2023), Reddick has an average finish of 11.0 at the track, which is fifth-best among all active drivers.

However, the driver suffered a crash, which led to a 35th-place result at Homestead in 2022. Without that 35th-place finish factored in, Reddick's track record at the 1.5-mile intermediate is tantalizingly good.

In his other three starts at Homestead, Reddick has finished 2nd (2021), 3rd (2023), and 4th (2020). If Reddick can avoid being swept up in an incident, the 23XI Racing driver has a very real shot at chiseling his name into the Championship 4 lineup at Phoenix Raceway.

Ryan Blaney, -47 points

Of the four drivers below the Playoff cutline heading into this weekend's race, Blaney has the worst overall track record at Homestead-Miami Speedway. But if you're counting him out, don't.

Blaney finished second in this race a season ago, and it was part of the phenomenal run that the Team Penske driver had on his path to his first career championship last year.

In that race, Blaney led 53 laps, and he was a true contender for the lead, and win all race long. Blaney also led 70 laps at Homestead in 2020 en route to a third-place finish.

Now, while Blaney was excellent in those two races at Homestead, he has failed to record a top-10 in the other seven races that he's contested at Homestead in his NASCAR Cup Series career. But with Team Penske already having Joey Logano locked into the Championship 4, and Austin Cindric outside of the Playoffs, you'd imagine the team would be pushing all of its resources into the center of the table over the next two races in an effort to lock up 50 percent of the Championship 4 field.

Blaney showed last weekend he was a team player as he took his wounded car and drafted Logano up to, and around Daniel Suarez for the race win. Maybe Logano can find a way to help Blaney if he needs him in the closing laps this weekend?

Chase Elliott, -53 points

The 2020 NASCAR Cup Series champion and year-in, and year-out Most Popular Driver would love to work his way back into the Championship 4 after missing the Playoffs for the first time in his full-time NASCAR Cup Series career.

While he doesn't have a win on his record at Homestead-Miami Speedway, yet, Elliott does own the second-best average finish at this track of any active driver at 10.4.

Elliott's impressive average finish at Homestead is made even more impressive by the fact that the driver only has three top-10 finishes in his eight starts at the 1.5-mile track. What that means is even when he doesn't have a potential race-winning car at Homestead, Elliott finds a way to gut out respectable top-15 finishes.

The driver, who finished second at Homestead during that magical 2020 championship season, has never finished worse than 15th at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

Since Elliott became a bonafide championship contender for the first time in 2020, the NASCAR Cup Series championship race has been contested at Phoenix, not Homestead, which hosted the finale for years prior to the move to Arizona.

Elliott has never faced what he's felt as a must-win scenario heading into a race at Homestead in his career. Perhaps that motivation will help the Hendrick Motorsports driver finally go over the edge and score a win at the 1.5-mile speedway in South Flordia.

While they're all on the outside looking in currently in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Standings, all four drivers below the cutline are intriguingly competitive at the 1.5-mile speedway, and could very well shake the Playoff picture up by the end of this weekend's 400-miler at Homestead.

Photo Credit: Tyson Gifford | Racing America